LOOK HOW WE'VE GROWN

‘It’s going to keep growing’

El Paso County has the largest population of any county in the state. You read that right — El Paso County has even more people than the city and county of Denver, according to federal figures released today that estimate the total for July 1, 2005.

The U.S. Census Bureau also revised figures for 2004 and found that El Paso County actually surpassed Denver nearly two years ago. El Paso County now has an estimated 565,582 residents, which is 7,665 more than Denver and 36,492 more than third-place Arapahoe County.

Not that being tops in population affects much, except perhaps local pride.

“This one’s for bragging rights,” said Larry Kallenberger, director of Colorado Counties Inc., a lobbying agency for counties. “It’s going to keep growing, where, God bless Denver, I don’t know how much they’re going to grow.”

El Paso County’s population rose 1.4 percent from 2004 to 2005, and it has increased 9.4 percent during the past six years.

Denver still the economic powerhouse

Even six years ago, when El Paso County had 516,929 residents and ranked No. 3 in population, it didn’t trail far behind the leaders.

Population growth has since slowed in Denver, and Jefferson County lost about 255 residents from 2000 to 2005.

With help from the military and plenty of room to grow, El Paso County skated to the top position.

El Paso County actually moved into first place in 2004, according to new Census Bureau figures.

The old figures had El Paso County behind Denver by 4,891 residents.

Experts are always revising the numbers to reflect improved data, said Colorado State Demographer Elizabeth Garner.

Is Denver chagrined at being knocked off the throne?

Not the mayor’s spokeswoman, Lindy Eichenbaum Lent.

“We congratulate El Paso County,” she said. “Their prosperity and success benefits the entire state.”

Before El Paso County residents get too big for their britches, though, they should remember this: Denver is part of a nine-county metropolitan area that boasts 2.6 million residents.

“Economically, we don’t compete with Denver,” said Aaron Klibaner, a demographer for the Pikes Peak Area Council of Governments. “They blow us out of the water, so it’s just not a meaningful comparison.”

New baby boomers, or migration?

The sound of growth in El Paso County is crying newborns. Census figures show 8,505 babies were born in El Paso County during the year that ended July 1, 2005, making up the biggest part of population growth.

Meanwhile, 3,297 people died, and 759 more people moved to the county than moved out.

Community activist Dave Gardner said that’s hogwash.

“Our pro-growth boosters out there do the citizens a disservice when they imply that all this population growth is due to birth rate,” said Gardner, who is chairman of the advocacy group Save The Springs. “It misleads them into thinking there’s nothing we can do about this population explosion.”

Gardner argues that people who move to the county account for a much greater portion of the growth, and that’s straining government services such as water supplies.

The number of people moving into the county may have been greater than the number of births during the economic boom of the 1990s, said State Demographer Elizabeth Garner, but births are higher today.

Garner said the so-called net migration will probably exceed births during the next couple of years as the economy recovers and more people move to the county for jobs.

New status doesn’t mean cash

Being the biggest kid on the block won’t lead to immediate, concrete changes for El Paso County. But it might contribute to a shift in attitudes, said Rosemary Bakes-Martin, administrator of the county Department of Health and Environment.

“We should be a major player, and I think what we need to do is continually let the state government know that we in El Paso County are serving a major part of the citizens in Colorado,” Bakes-Martin said.

The rapidly growing population has strained the Health Department as it’s responded to problems such as the West Nile virus and rising cases of tuberculosis. The state government gave money to county health departments around the state based on population as recently as 2002, but a state budget crunch ended that subsidy.

Now a plan to put the money back is under consideration among lawmakers.

Money for other government programs is partly based on population, but crossing a threshold from second to first won’t make any difference.

Douglas County still booming

Douglas County, north of the Pikes Peak region, holds onto its long-standing designation as one of the fastest-growing in the nation.

Douglas County ranked No. 6 among the fastest-growing counties with more than 10,000 residents, growing by 41.9 percent from 2000 to 2005.

Weld County, in northern Colorado, is booming, with a rank of No. 40 and growth of 26.6 percent.

Many counties on Colorado’s eastern border, though, are experiencing a dramatic population bust. Cheyenne County is shrinking the fastest, with a decline of 12.5 percent since 2000. Kiowa County dropped 12.3 percent.

Cheyenne has an estimated 1,953 residents and Kiowa about 1,422. Still, the decline continues a trend that for many counties started decades ago as farmers struggled to maintain their businesses with little water and tight profit margins.

“You’ve got to look at it in terms of the economy, what kind of jobs are out there and what jobs are growing,” said State Demographer Elizabeth Garner. “Unfortunately, ag(riculture) is not growing.”

El Paso County’s lead safe

El Paso County can get comfortable as the state’s most populated. One reason is the rapidly growing military presence. Experts project that about 12,256 activeduty military personnel will move to El Paso County by 2008. With spouses and families, the effect will be about 35,100 new residents.

Another factor is space to grow. El Paso County and the cities inside it, including Colorado Springs, have massive areas that could be turned into subdivisions.

Denver, meanwhile, has little room left to grow and is focused on transforming old developments. Jefferson County also doesn’t have nearly as much land for building, and many of its residents are baby boomers whose children are leaving home, contributing to a drop in the population.

Demographers predict El Paso County will be way out in front 25 years from now, with 870,000 residents. Arapahoe County will be second, with 750,000 residents.