Local jobless rate climbs to 8.6 percent

El Paso County's job market continued to worsen last month as unemployment jumped to a 21-year high of 8.6 percent in March, up from 8.4 percent in February, the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment reported Friday.

The March rate, which is not adjusted for seasonal changes, is the county's highest since 9 percent of its residents were looking for work in March 1988. When such adjustments are made, the county's jobless rate last month was 8.2 percent, up from 8.1 percent in February and 5.3 percent a year earlier. The department has calculated monthly seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for the state's cities for 2000-2009.

Local payrolls in March also reflected a weakening local economy, declining by 9,300, or 3.56 percent, from a year ago amid heavy job losses in services, tourism, manufacturing, construction and retailing. The only growth came in government and health care sectors, the department said. The payroll numbers are calculated from a survey of employers, while the unemployment rate comes from a survey of residents.

Although other economic indicators like city sales tax collections and area housing prices have shown slight improvements in recent months, the local job market continues to worsen. First-time claims for unemployment insurance surged in March to a record 864, easily surpassing the 770 claims filed in May 1996 and also in December.

"We will continue to see job losses, and unemployment will continue to rise. We could be wobbling along the bottom of the market and we may have seen the worst, but it isn't over yet. We could see the local job market remain at the bottom for at least 12 months or so," said Dave Bamberger of Bamberger & Associates, a local economic consulting firm. "Local unemployment could approach 9 percent and even a little bit above; 10 percent is within the realm of possibility."

A 10 percent rate would approach the 10.1 percent unemployment rate for March 1987, the highest local jobless rate since 1970, the earliest date for which local data is available. That rate did not include adjustments for seasonal changes.

Fred Crowley, senior economist for the Southern Colorado Economic Forum, doubts the local job market will deteriorate much more as 5,300 troops begin arriving this summer at Fort Carson as units are moved from Fort Hood in Texas.

"The arrival of the troops will trigger significant local retail job growth. As a result, the local job market probably has hit bottom, barring any significant changes related to the national or international economies," Crowley said.

Statewide, the jobless rate, which is adjusted for seasonal changes, rose in March to 7.5 percent, the highest in nearly 22 years. Colorado's unemployment rate was 7.2 percent in February and 4.6 percent a year earlier. Statewide payrolls last month declined by nearly 73,000 jobs, or 3.08 percent, from a year earlier with widespread losses in many of Colorado's largest industries, including services, construction and retailing.

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