Local business leaders weigh in on range of indicators and make recovery predictions

Is that a light at the end of the tunnel or an oncoming train?

As gloomy as the day-to-day headlines are, all but the gloomiest gurus expect the economy to turn around ... eventually.

But when is eventually? And how will we know when it's arrived?

We spoke with local business leaders and asked them what indicators, trends, hints, portents and signs they are watching to tell when the Colorado Springs economy has hit bottom. And, more to the point, how they'll know that things are on the mend. For extra credit, we asked them to suggest when that turnaround will happen.

Fred Crowley, Senior economist for the Southern Colorado Economic Forum

"People will look for leading indicators or nonleading. I think you'll have confirmation of a bottom when the trailing indicators are no longer declining.

"To me, the most important of those indicators is the unemployment rate - at that point you can probably say we bottomed out two to three months earlier."

"With the troops coming back from deployment, now add to that the 4,000 to 5,000 new troops, between those two categories we should have a very significant increase in retail activity. Retail should be a leading indicator."

WHAT'S NEXT: "I would tend to think, domestically, we'll see that toward the end of the year. Locally, we'll see it a little bit earlier - perhaps the end of the third quarter."

Mike Kazmierski, President of the Colorado Springs Regional Economic Development Corp.

"From an EDC perspective, we believe that jobs drive the economy. Quality job creation generates the wealth that grows the economy.

"We will be affected by the national downturn. There's no way to decouple the two. The question is, can we be in a position to weather the storm better than most?

"The reality is that we have a lot of people that are without jobs and a lot more that will be without jobs in the coming months. Not a day goes by that we don't think about that.

"We have some good job-growth potential. We're scrambling to meet the needs of people who are looking at Colorado."

WHAT'S NEXT: "Wouldn't that be a good piece of information to sell on the open market?

"There is a strong possibility that we are going to go higher on unemployment through 2009. Until that employment number stops rising and begins to go down, I'm not going to be too optimistic."

David Csintyan, Chief Executive of the Greater Colorado Springs Chamber of Commerce

"One of the things that certainly comes to mind to me is credit loosening up. There are a lot of businesses that heretofore had credit lines that can't get them.

"When those dollars start becoming more realistic and more accessible, I think that's an indicator.

"No. 2 is just spending habits, what people are doing.

"Watching what's happening in the auto industry is telling me that people are being very, very cautious.

"The system has to recalibrate itself and get the dollars in the economy.

"If you start making wise and careful spending decisions, we can go a long way toward starting this correction."

WHAT'S NEXT: "I think we're in the middle of the woods and we're starting to work our way out. I think 2009 will be a transition year, and 2010 is a year where all good things happen."

Rob Mangone, Vice president of Rocky Mountain Materials and Asphalt

"I think the projects that are bidding are the best indicator that we can get, whether it's private work, government work, state work.

"A good indicator of the economy turning around would be more private work bidding.

"It's a little early to make any long-range forecasts. This time of year, there's a lot of things that are pending.

"You hate to be pessimistic and you hate to be overly optimistic. Right now, we're just holding our breath.

"It's a matter of confidence in the marketplace and, quite frankly, we don't seem to have that.

"We have a lot of people that are laid off and we'd like to see those folks get back to work as soon as we can."

WHAT'S NEXT: "Right now, Colorado is probably one of the states that will recover faster than anyone else."

Ed Sauer, President of The Bank at Broadmoor and chairman of the Colorado Bankers Association

"The first thing I look at to show signs of recovery is job growth. Looking a week ahead, a month ahead, several months ahead, if you can be confident in job growth, that's the most important thing to me.

"There was a statistic I heard on the news today that consumer confidence was at the lowest level it's ever been. It's difficult to determine in the recession we're obviously in, how much is the fiscal situation and how much is consumer sentiment.

"People have to feel confident with their job and with housing.

"When people start seeing housing going up, even slightly, that's a good indicator. I think that will spur demand.

"Most of the commercial banks in the United States are doing just fine. We didn't get involved with subprime lending or any of those things.

"I think if the true information, the correct information, gets out about traditional banking, that's what needs to happen.

"There are positive things going on out there. Our economy locally isn't as bad as other places."

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Call Wineke at 636-0275