Heavy snowpack raises the specter of flooding

Repeated mountain snowstorms this year have been great for skiing and water supplies, but some communities this spring could experience a downside to the highest snowpack in a decade.

The National Weather Service issued its spring flood outlook Thursday and warned that, from snow melt-off alone, the Arkansas River has an 80 percent chance of overflowing its banks in Cañon City and a 60 percent chance in La Junta.

Flooding is expected to be minor — up to 1.5 feet in Cañon City and 2.3 feet in La Junta.

But, experts warn, a snowy spring, combined with a sudden warming or rainfall, could exacerbate the threat. The weather service bases its outlook on the occurrence of average temperatures and precipitation.

“The thing we need is a bit of an orderly meltdown,” said Mike Gillespie, snow-survey supervisor with the Natural Resources Conservation Service. Snowpack is such that minor flooding could occur even without rain, he said.

Snowpack in the Arkansas River basin is 162 percent of the 30-year average. Reservoirs are also near capacity — 94 percent in the basin, according to the weather service.

Steve Morrisey, emergency manager for Fremont County, said he does not expect major flooding.

“In most cases, it will be a nuisance flood, but there are some houses that have been built in flood-prone areas,” Morrisey said.

But, he said, wet weather could change that, so officials will meet with other communities and water experts later this month to look at what supplies would be needed and how to find volunteers to fill and lay sandbags.

“That’s what we’re hoping, that it’s going to be a nice warm spring and the snow is going to melt at a steady rate,” he said. “If it’s spread over a period of time, it will be a good thing. The rafters will be happy.”

Many rafters are already happy.

Last year saw a slight increase in Arkansas River rafters, up 2,700 to 239,887, as Colorado’s rafting industry inches back to levels preceding the Hayman fire of 2002.

Outfitters say they hope the promise of high water means high visitation.

“It’s going to be a big water year, there’s no question about it,” said Duke Bradford, owner of Arkansas Valley Adventures in Buena Vista.

Like downstream communities, the rafters would rather see a gradual melt-off, because too much water forces them to close some of the more popular routes.

In Colorado Springs, Fountain Creek is not expected to reach anywhere near flood stage, according to the flood outlook.

The reservoirs that provide Colorado Springs Utilities with water are in good shape, at 74 percent of capacity — average for early March is 62 percent. That is good news for people who want to water their lawns this summer.

“It’s looking very favorable for a pretty good-sized runoff, so we don’t anticipate having to do any restrictions this year,” Utilities spokesman Dave Grossman said.

CONTACT THE WRITER: 476-1605 or scott.rappold@gazette.com