OUR VIEW: A Massachusetts miracle today?
All the usual caveats apply, in spades. Special elections, which traditionally bring out somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 percent of the voters, are especially difficult to call, and relatively small groups that get fired up can tip such an election unpredictably. Massachusetts waved goodbye to its previous Republican U.S. senator 31 years ago, and hasn’t sent a Republican to the House for 16 years. The buzz that has been building for the past week could energize loyal Democrats.
But the buzz has been unmistakable. Most polls show Republican state Sen. Scott Brown gaining on Democratic state Attorney General Martha Coakley for the Senate seat held 43 years by the late Ted Kennedy, and some show Brown ahead. Two respected independent political seers now say the election, set for today, “leans Brown.”
What could account for this in the bluest of blue states?
In a general way, the possible Republican trend reflects growing disillusionment with President Barack Obama’s administration, especially regarding the ambitious health care plan still in limbo while negotiations to reconcile the House and Senate versions continued. Because of Senate rules it takes 60 votes to break a filibuster, and Brown has made it part of his campaign that he would be the 41st vote against Obamacare. The fact that this seems to have resonated with voters suggests that neither version commands support, even in Massachusetts.
Reports from the Bay State suggest that taxes and spending are also issues that resonate with the voters, and not to the Democrats’ benefit. It also appears that while moderate Republicans have been elected to the governorship in recent years, an increasing number of Massachusetts voters chafe at what they see as one-party rule. There might even be a modicum of resentment that the Kennedy family, which has held this seat since 1953, when John F. Kennedy went to the Senate, has taken it for granted that any Kennedy loyalist can win without breaking a sweat.
It is worth noting that while Republicans account for 11 percent of registered voters in Massachusetts, registered Independents outnumber Democrats, 55-37 percent, and independents have been breaking for Brown.
Will all these trends form a perfect storm that carries Scott Brown into the U.S. Senate? President Obama and former President Bill Clinton campaigned in the Bay State in the past few days and aides say Coakley supporters contacted 600,000 voters Sunday. The state has been blanketed with TV ads, with Democrats outspending Republicans.
A Republican win today could be a harbinger of big Democratic losses in November – and even a close finish will give Democrats a queasy feeling. — From the Orange County Register, a Freedom Communications newspaper
