Air Force Basketball preview

THREE GAMES TO WATCH

Nov. 26 at Stanford

The Falcons' first (and possibly only) game against a team from a high-powered conference before it begins Mountain West Conference play. It's also their first road game, and it should reveal plenty about the young squad.

Jan. 3 vs. San Diego State

Air Force plays three of its first four conference games at home, starting with a game against the talented Aztecs. San Diego State is loaded, with its top eight players from last season back.

Jan. 20 at Colorado State

The first of back-to-back road games (Colorado State and Wyoming). The Falcons finished above both those teams last season, but both are improved.

THREE SIGNS OF A GOOD SEASON

1 Andrew Henke thrives

The senior guard/forward is Air Force's leading returning scorer and rebounder and its top shooter. He's also taken on a significant leadership role as one of just three seniors. So if he's playing well, the team should be playing well. He will be the Falcons' primary scoring threat, and he's proven he can score in bunches. But Henke also will be the prime focus of opposing defenses for the first time in his college career.

2 Freshmen don't play like freshmen

It's inevitable that the first-year Falcons will have their share of struggles. But Air Force is counting on several freshmen handling significant minutes - including guard Jon Atkins, who could be the team's sixth man. If those players perform at or close to the level at which sophomore guard Evan Washington played a season ago, Air Force again will exceed expectations.

3 One or more post players emerge

The Falcons entered the 2007-08 season without any experience in the post, but then-senior Keith Maren stepped into the starting lineup and thrived. Maren has graduated, however, as has his backup, Eric Kenzik. And sophomore Phillip Brown, who showed great potential late last season, is ineligible for the nonconference portion of the schedule. So Air Force has turned to juniors Mike McLain and Grant Parker, who played 5 and 24 minutes, respectively, last season, and a pair of freshmen, Trevor Noonan and Sammy Schafer.

THREE SIGNS OF A BAD SEASON

1 The Falcons struggle in nonconference play

Save for a road game at Stanford and a potential game against Cal in the Golden Bear Classic, Air Force's nonconference schedule is soft. In many ways that could be good, as it might allow a young and inexperienced squad to gain confidence. But if the Falcons lose more than a handful of games, that likely would project a gruesome conference season in the loaded Mountain West.

2 Air Force has trouble bringing ball up the floor

The Falcons' offense doesn't have a true point guard, but last season Tim Anderson handled much of the Falcons' ball-handling duties, and Adam Hood contributed some off the bench. But both now are gone. The Falcons likely will use a committee of players to bring the ball up, led by starting guards Anwar Johnson and Washington. It would help if another player emerged as a good ball-handler.

3 Shooting does not improve

Coach Jeff Reynolds said his team's shooting is a concern. And that has to change. Air Force's offense relies heavily on shooting and the 3-point shot. Last season the Falcons' shooting percentage in victories was 49.1 percent, including 41.5 from 3-point range. In losses those percentages dropped to 39.0 and 33.2, respectively. Henke gives the Falcons a clutch, pure shooter, but Air Force needs more players to knock down shots.

Essentially, fellow starters Matt Holland, Washington and Johnson need to be great, good and competent shooters, respectively.