Breakdown of Air Force at Boise State
Three things to watch
1. Control the clock
Given Boise State’s offensive power and Air Force’s porous defense, the Falcons’ best bet to win the game might be to keep the Broncos’ offense off the field. If Air Force can shorten the game by controlling the clock and limiting Boise State’s possessions, that will help the Falcons’ defense.
2. Don’t forget the run game
Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore is the Broncos’ headliner, but they have a good running game as well. Doug Martin averages 103.7 yards per game, and had 200 yards last week. Air Force is struggling to stop the run, so Boise State will give Martin plenty of touches.
3. Don’t make a mistake
The Falcons can’t count on forcing many turnovers against a Boise State team that has committed just six turnovers in six games. What Air Force can do is protect the ball on offense. Two turnovers by the Falcons’ offense were turning points in a loss to San Diego State last week.
Key matchup
Air Force’s offensive line vs. Boise State’s defensive line
Boise State has a talented, large, experienced defensive line. But the Broncos haven’t seen the Falcons’ unique offense. Air Force’s issues on defense have overshadowed the fact that the Falcons’ offense has played pretty well this season. One thing Boise State’s defensive linemen could have a problem with is Air Force’s cut blocking, which the Broncos haven’t seen much of this season.
Quote to note: “"When you’re at the Air Force Academy and you have to fly a mission, if the tanks are brown on brown, you still have to go fly it." – Calhoun on the issue of Boise State not being able to wear blue jerseys on its blue turf.
Note to quote: Boise State will play its first home Mountain West game today, and maybe MW opponents will have more luck than the WAC did at Bronco Stadium. In its nine seasons in the WAC, Boise State was 40-0 at home in conference play.
By the numbers
31: Points Boise State was favored by in Las Vegas for most of the week. The largest spread Air Force has faced since at least 1985 was 28.5 points at Notre Dame in 1990, according to covers.com.
71-2: Boise State’s record at home since the start of the 2000 season, the best mark in the nation during that stretch.
Plus-9: Turnover margin for Boise State this year, tied for fifth best in the nation on a per-game basis. Air Force’s turnover margin is minus-6.
