Floored: Falcons fall from swagger to stagger

On Jan. 13, 2007, the Air Force men's basketball team strutted into Wyoming's Arena-Auditorium with a 12-game winning streak, a 16-1 record and a No. 18 national ranking.

On Tuesday - two years and two weeks later - the Falcons will limp into the Cowboys' gym with a six-game losing streak, an 0-5 mark in Mountain West Conference play and none of that swagger.

Rebuilding naturally follows periods of prosperity. But Air Force has plummeted so fast this season that an uncomfortable question has started to surface: Is this an expected and temporary downturn or a harbinger of a return to the program's hapless past?

After finishing 16-14 and 8-8 in the MWC last season, Air Force is 9-9 overall - but it's a deceiving mark. Two of those victories came against Division II teams, and the others came against Division I teams with losing records (those teams were 32-89 heading into this weekend's games).

At Clune Arena, where Air Force lost only six of 74 games the previous five seasons, the Falcons are 7-5, including losses to Wofford and Stony Brook.

In league play, the Falcons have been blown out by Utah and New Mexico and lost last week to a Colorado State team that was missing four key players.

So what has happened?

The perfect storm

Coach Jeff Reynolds has a simple explanation for the downturn: The program lost 10 key performers to graduation the past two years, leading to an influx of youth. And that, combined with an especially strong MWC, has created a perfect storm.

In addition, Reynolds admitted recruiting had suffered in recent years because of coaching turnover - in 2007, Reynolds became the  fourth coach in five seasons. And he noted that he can't fill in gaps by bringing in transfers.

"Everybody's trying to pick us apart," he said. "There's nothing really wrong other than we're very young, the league's very good and right now we're not winning games. That's the bottom line."

Air Force certainly has some young players - six freshmen have played this season, and several are key reserves. But this season's squad has just as many seniors and juniors (seven) as the 2007-08 team. And with three returning starters and the sixth man back from the 2007-08 team, this season's squad is more experienced.

Reynolds points out that there is little experience beyond the three returning starters and sixth man. The four juniors - Grant Parker, Saj El-Amin, Avery Merriex and Mike McLain - played 24, 24, 17 and 5 minutes, respectively, all of last season.

"We won 16 games (last season), you gonna fault us for not playing them?" Reynolds said of the juniors. "How about the year before? We won 28 games (actually 26), you gonna fault us for not playing them?"

On-court problems

Air Force is struggling on both ends of the floor.

Frustrating, disruptive defense was a hallmark of recent Air Force squads. But four of the first five conference opponents bested their season shooting percentage against Air Force.

"Just not enough pressure, not enough confusion," senior Andrew Henke said. "We used to really confuse teams with the defense, kind of take them out of their rhythm. Maybe people have started to figure it out."

Reynolds said his team's defensive intensity has been affected adversely by offensive struggles. And the Falcons "right now," Reynolds said, are "very inept on the offensive end."

In conference play, Air Force has made 36.2 percent of its field goal attempts, including 30.3 percent from 3-point range (both league worsts heading into Saturday's games).

With only a few reliable 3-point shooters, defenses can pack the lane and take away the back-door cuts that used to be a staple. Reynolds said he's tweaked Air Force's Princeton-style offense to adjust to his personnel (guards Anwar Johnson and Evan Washington, for example, are better slashers than 3-point shooters, so Reynolds is giving them more driving opportunities). And he believes the offense has provided good opportunities that simply haven't been converted.

"We missed eight layups the other night (against Colorado State) - eight, OK?" Reynolds said. "So what more can you say? I mean, eight layups. Eight layups. ... We can't, as a team, get better shots than that."

Heading into Saturday, Air Force also ranked second-to-last in assist-to-turnover ratio (.76) and last in free-throw percentage (67.1) among MWC teams in league play.

Unrealistic expectations?

In five seasons from 2003 to 2008, Air Force went 106-49, including 51-25 in MWC play, and set high standards.

But are they too high?

"The problem is the expectations," Reynolds said.

A look at the history of Air Force basketball suggests the previous five years might have been an anomaly. In the 27 seasons before the breakthrough 2003-04 campaign, the academy had one winning season.

So did Air Force simply catch lightning in a bottle during the previous five seasons, thanks to some standout classes, including the Class of 2007, which graduated with 90 wins?

Only time will tell. The freshman class is promising, and both Reynolds, on his Jan. 15 radio show on KVOR, and athletic director Hans Mueh have asked for patience.

"Bear with us, give us a chance," Reynolds said. "We'll fix the problem."