Broncos camp preview: the quarterbacks

Kyle Orton isn't going to create a lot of buzz (there's a reason he's the first quarterback since John Elway that hasn't gotten the "How is it following in Elway's shadow?" hype) but the Broncos are hoping he can be an effective quarterback. The question is, can he be?

Orton doesn't have much of a track record to study. He started as a rookie, and the Bears won with him, but he was just a caretaker. He had more starts that season with less than 100 yards passing (four) than starts with more than 200 yards (two). The Bears were 3-1 when he threw for fewer than 100 yards. Like any quarterback, he can't be judged on his rookie season.

He didn't start at all his second season, and got three starts at the end of his third season in 2007. Although he didn't light it up (no games over 200 yards, a 53.8 completion percentage), he did enough to earn the starting job going into the 2008 season.

Few people remember how good Orton was over his first seven starts last season. He was efficient and in games three through seven threw for at least 199 yards every outing. The Bears lost by three points at Carolina (the second best team in the NFC last year), lost in overtime to Tampa Bay (the Buccaneers scored 10 points in the final 3:11, including a touchdown with seven seconds left, to tie) and lost on a last-second field goal at Atlanta after a heinous decision to squib kick after Orton completed what should have been the game-winning touchdown with 11 seconds left. The Bears were 4-3 with three excruciating losses to good teams, and Orton was a big reason for their success.

Remember the great start Jay Cutler had last year? Compare Orton and Cutler through seven games. Denver and Chicago had a bye in Week 8:

Kyle Orton, 2008 through seven games
1,669 yards
10 touchdowns
4 interceptions (5 games without an interception)
143 completions
230 attempts
62.2 completion percentage
7.26 per attempt
4-3 team record

Jay Cutler, 2008 through seven games
1,862 yards
13 touchdowns
7 interceptions (2 games without an interception)
163 completions
254 attempts
64.2 completion percentage
7.33 per attempt
4-3 team record

Nobody would argue Orton is a better quarterback than Cutler. Cutler is a Pro Bowler who seems on his way to a fantastic career.

But Orton wasn't too far behind Cutler's numbers through about half of the season. And remember, Cutler was working with a far better set of receivers, behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and was in an offense that attempted the second most passes in the league.

What derailed Orton was an ankle injury in Week 8. He was carted off the field. While reports of him missing a month with a high ankle sprain didn't prove to be true - he missed just one game - he wasn't the same after that. He broke 172 yards passing only twice the rest of the season, with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions in his final seven starts. The Bears missed the playoffs.

When the Broncos obtained Orton in the Cutler trade, and Josh McDaniels made him the starter in June even though he didn't obviously outplay Chris Simms in the minicamp practices that were open to the media, the team was betting Orton's true ability level is what he showed in the first half of 2008, more than the pedestrian post-injury performance he had in the second half. And in McDaniels' offense, with a better group of receivers than he had in Chicago (especially if Brandon Marshall shows up), Orton could have a very good season. If he does, it shouldn't be a huge shock to those that recall how effective he was for the first half of 2008.

Behind Orton, Simms looked healthy and strong in minicamps. He has experience and talent, and if Orton gets hurt or falters, he could also benefit from McDaniels' system. Tom Brandstater is the rookie project. If he takes advantage of his reps in training camp and whatever preseason action he gets, he could be groomed as Denver's quarterback of the future.