No sure thing

Chris Nelson is not yet a bust. He’s not yet a success story. He’s simply lingering in the Rockies’ system as an example of the uncertainty of the major league baseball draft.

Today marks six years since Colorado grabbed Nelson with the ninth overall selection, believing they found a smaller version of Gary Sheffield. Weeks after earning a high school diploma, Nelson agreed to a $2.15 million signing bonus and went off to the minor leagues.

That’s where he remains today, finally healthy and still trying to live up to the expectations.

“I’m just happy to be playing baseball again,” said Nelson, who reached Triple-A for the first time this season and is batting .327 in 26 games for the Sky Sox. “I’ve been out for a year, so I’m just happy to be playing.”

The MLB draft begins today, as millions of dollars will be handed out to unproven prospects without the slightest guarantee of a return — according to Sports Illustrated, more than 30 percent of first-round picks don’t the majors. There are simply too many variables to project, particularly with high school players. How will they adjust to professional pitchers or hitters? Can they handle a wooden bat? Can they handle the money? Then there’s the matter of physical development, which can take a player away from a natural position.

The uncertainties are trumped by the possibility of grabbing the next Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez or Joe Mauer — each taken out of high school in the first round.

Nelson wasn’t expected to play at that level, but he was an enticing talent who offered power, speed, flashy skills at shortstop and an arm that reportedly clocked 101 mph from the mound. His development, however, has been marred by injuries that have cost him nearly 60 games per year over the past five seasons. His only full season was 2007, when he hit 19 home runs, drove in 99 runs and stole 27 bases for High-A Modesto.

The Rockies haven’t given up on him, keeping him on the 40-man roster and slowly promoting him through the system. But Nelson is 24 now, so his days as a high-ceiling prospect are dwindling.

“He’s just trying to really find himself at this level,” Colorado Springs manager Stu Cole said. “He still has a long way to go. We’re going to work with him and see if we get him at that level he needs to be.

“You still see that talent out there. You see those plays he’s capable of making. We’re just trying to get him to be consistent with that.”

Nelson didn’t begin this season with the Sky Sox until May 8 after yet another stint on the disabled list, but he’s looking more and more comfortable. He’s entered Sunday batting .520 (13 for 25) over a stretch of six games with 10 RBIs.

He said he hasn’t lost a step as his legs have escaped injuries — though that’s not all positive.

“I’d rather my legs be hurt than my wrist,” Nelson said. “I kind of depend on my hands and wrist a lot.”

In their short existence the Rockies have reached the highest of highs with their first-round picks (Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki) and the lowest of lows (Doug Million, Matt Harrington). Nelson will fall somewhere on that spectrum. Where? That’s no more certain that it was in 2004